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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."